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Editorial Viewpoint
The coming AI revolution will soon
bring many changes
I wrote about Artificial Intelligence recently, in
my March editorial (actually, the AI did most of
the writing then). I am bringing up the topic again
because progress in the field is extremely rapid and
it’s becoming more clear over time that it is going to
bring massive changes quite soon.
Way back then, I wrote “… I don’t think my job is in
danger just yet.” but, with the latest developments, I am starting to reconsider!
While the development of transistors, ICs, computers and smart devices has
had a significant impact on society, I think that AI is going to have an even
more significant impact. The AI revolution will probably bring the biggest
change since the Industrial Revolution and it will happen fast.
Like with the Industrial Revolution, new jobs are going to appear but
many existing jobs are going to disappear or shrink drastically. Things like
clerical jobs are going to be handled largely by AIs overseen by a handful of
people, replacing large teams of people. AIs are already smart enough to do
many of those jobs.
The AI I evaluated just a couple of months ago was ChatGPT-3. They
recently released its successor, ChatGPT-4, which can pass the American
bar exam (to become a lawyer) in the top 10%! It also gets very high marks
in the SAT exams like English, Maths, Biology, Chemistry and Physics, with
a passing score in Calculus.
Fields that I expect will see large job losses once AI takes over include data
and financial analysis, customer service, banking, some aspects of healthcare,
management and administration.
I don’t think those jobs will go away completely, but they will probably
transform from a large team of people to smaller teams overseeing AIs that
perform most of the repetitive tasks.
Based on the way ChatGPT-4 is performing, some are saying that it won’t
be long before we have Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) – essentially, a
computer that is as intelligent as many humans and can perform many of
the same tasks as we can.
It seems that AI will be able to offload a lot of repetitive and time-consuming
tasks that we would otherwise have to do, which is great news for us in terms
of raising our productivity. It will probably ultimately raise the standard
of living for all of us, but not without a lot of disruptions in the short and
medium term.
Over time, I think we will see an expansion of the things that an AI can
do and as that happens, it will snowball and more and more complex tasks
will be able to be completed without human intervention.
Imagine what will happen when AIs can do things like browse the internet,
access online shopping, interact with third-party software and so on. You
would be able to ask it to design a circuit for a particular application, design
the PCB, order it, get it assembled and delivered to you, then hook it up to
a computer and get it to test it for you. It could do most of that in just a few
minutes or perhaps hours.
Apply that to many different fields and you’ll start to get an idea of how
disruptive the AI revolution might be.
I should mention that there are valid concerns about what AIs could do
once unleashed in this manner; apparently, OpenAI is putting a lot of effort
into figuring out how to prevent AIs from going rogue and limit the damage
if they do (as well as addressing bias and privacy concerns). Regardless, that
will become a significant issue over the coming years.
See this video for more: https://youtu.be/DIU48QL5Cyk
by Nicholas Vinen
24-26 Lilian Fowler Pl, Marrickville 2204
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Silicon Chip
Australia's electronics magazine
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