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SILICON SILIC CHIP www.siliconchip.com.au Publisher & Editor-in-Chief Leo Simpson, B.Bus., FAICD Production Manager Greg Swain, B.Sc. (Hons.) Technical Editor John Clarke, B.E.(Elec.) Technical Staff Ross Tester Jim Rowe, B.A., B.Sc Nicholas Vinen Photography Ross Tester Reader Services Ann Morris Advertising Enquiries Glyn Smith Phone (02) 9939 3295 Mobile 0431 792 293 glyn<at>siliconchip.com.au Regular Contributors Brendan Akhurst Rodney Champness, VK3UG Kevin Poulter Stan Swan Dave Thompson SILICON CHIP is published 12 times a year by Silicon Chip Publications Pty Ltd. ACN 003 205 490. ABN 49 003 205 490. All material is copyright ©. No part of this publication may be reproduced without the written consent of the publisher. Printing: Hannanprint, Noble Park, Victoria. Distribution: Network Distribution Company. Subscription rates: $105.00 per year in Australia. For overseas rates, see our website or the subscriptions page in this issue. Editorial office: Unit 1, 234 Harbord Rd, Brookvale, NSW 2100. Postal address: PO Box 139, Collaroy Beach, NSW 2097. Phone (02) 9939 3295. Fax (02) 9939 2648. E-mail: silicon<at>siliconchip.com.au ISSN 1030-2662 Publisher’s Letter Hybrid cars may not endure Here is a forecast: hybrid electric cars, as we presently know them, will be a rarity in a few years time! In fact, they might eventually be as rare as electric cars. Taking the last part of my statement first, electric car sales are going nowhere. While I happen to think that the Nissan Leaf is an attractive proposition (see the Publisher’s Letter, October 2012), the fact is that very few have been sold either in Australia or elsewhere. And while there are many more hybrid electric cars on sale with brands like Honda, Lexus and Toyota, their overall sales are in the minority. It is not hard to see why. Hybrid cars do not have range problems like electrics but often cost a significant amount more than equivalent petrol or diesel-engined cars and that can be more than the overall savings in fuel economy over the life of the car, say 10 years. So whether or not prospective car purchasers carefully consider the economics of a hybrid, the result is that not many are sold. But that is not the reason for my forecast. The reason is that General Motors in the USA has just cancelled production of its Malibu hybrid for 2014. The Malibu is sold in Australia in petrol or diesel-engined form but not as a hybrid. The American hybrid version combined a 2.4-litre 4-cylinder petrol engine, electric motor and a large lithium-ion battery pack that reduces space in the boot and adds to the vehicle’s weight. It cost significantly more than the equivalent 2.5 litre petrol-engined equivalent with stop/start technology but was found to give the same fuel economy. Ergo, there was no economic reason to continue the hybrid model. Mind you, stop/start technology is a form of hybrid, sometimes referred to as “micro hybrid”. This decision by General Motors has a number of interesting consequences, apart from the potential overall direction of hybrid sales. First, large lithium-ion batteries in cars might not be a part of our motoring future. The stop/start technology in the Malibu uses two standard lead acid-batteries. One is the regular battery which starts the engine and runs all the associated electronics such as the ECU, fuel injection, ignition etc. The second battery recharges with regenerative braking (as with the battery in a full hybrid car) and powers the vehicle’s systems while the engine is stopped. So at one fell swoop, GM has eliminated the expensive lithium-ion battery, all its charging electronics, high-voltage cabling and the risk of fire. So think about this: if other car manufacturers take the same approach and elect not to use large lithium batteries in future vehicles, it may mean that continuing development of these batteries will not be rapid as it otherwise might have been. It also means that there is still a long-term future for the tried-and-true boring old lead-acid battery. Who would have thought of that? Furthermore, if you are an investor you will possibly conclude that the future market for lithium batteries may not be as hot as once thought or that the demand for lithium (with only a few countries having a monopoly on the production of lithium ore) might not be as high and lead prices will get a lift on the London Metals Exchange. In any case, it is probable that conventional petrol or diesel-engined cars can still get considerable improvements in fuel economy. This may not be via further improvements in engine efficiency but achieved simply by making cars lighter; they are much heavier than they were 30 years ago. Whatever happens, it seems as though hybrid cars as we now know them might be a technological dead-end. Leo Simpson Recommended and maximum price only. 4  Silicon Chip siliconchip.com.au