The enormous undersea earthquake and tsunami which occurred on December 26th (Boxing day) will have enormous consequences in Asia and all countries bordering the Indian Ocean for decades to come. The huge death toll, widespread injuries and utter destruction have been truly horrifying.

Yet how much of it could have been avoided if there had been an effective warning system? If only. With a system similar to that operating in Hawaii, Japan and for countries bordering the Pacific Ocean, it is probable that much of the death toll and the injuries could have largely been avoided. The economic destruction would still have occurred but buildings and infrastructure can always be rebuilt.

Even now, there are plans afoot to build such a warning system and while some people will inevitably say that this is closing the door after the horse has bolted, there will always be more earthquakes and tsunamis to come in the future. Perhaps such events may not be very far into the future, since they are entirely unpredictable. The last major tsunamis killed thousands of people in New Guinea (1998) and Indonesia (Flores, 1992).

In fact, since there are probably tens of millions more people living in countries bordering the Indian Ocean, it is arguable that the proposed warning system should be much more precise and comprehensive than the system used in the Pacific. There need to be many more ocean level sensors relaying to satellites and the resultant warnings broadcast much more quickly. After all, when you consider that typical tsunamis travel at around 900km/h across deep oceans – faster than a jet airliner – the earlier the warning, the better. The present system in Japan can generate a tsunami warning within three minutes of a major earthquake and such a system could potentially have saved thousands of lives in Sumatra, even though this was very close to the undersea quake.

When you think about it, there is no reason why such warnings could not be relayed automatically to virtually everyone in the population, whether by TV, radio or phone. In fact, in Asia, the mobile phone network could be the key. In the event of a tsunami warning, every person with a mobile phone could have an immediate SMS (text message). The same message could go out to fixed line phones as voice-mail.

Of course the internet could have a substantial part to play in any warning system as well, so that people logged onto their computers, including at hotels and resorts, would get immediate warnings via email or internet browser.

Ultimately, for such warnings to be effective, there would have to be well published procedures. mustering points and so on, as there are in Hawaii and Japan.

Such a comprehensive warning system is feasible right now although it will possibly take many millions of dollars to implement right through the affected countries. But tragically, as we have seen, the cost of having no warning system at all is just too high to contemplate. Fortunately, just as we were going to press, Germany has announced that they want to take a leading role in setting up a warning system and have drawn up a plan to cost an initial 40 million euros.

Let us hope that it proceeds without delay.

Leo Simpson