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Publishers Letter

Australia can do well in the new economy.

By Leo Simpson

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Over the last few months there has been much moaning and groaning from the economic commentators about the state of Australia's currency; the beleaguered Aussie dollar. For months now, it has been out of favour with the currency dealers and commentators have been coming up with reasons why.

One of the favourite arguments is that Australia is perceived as an "old economy" and that since it does not have any large manufacturers of IT (information technology) or telecommunications equipment, no-one from overseas is interested in investing here. In a further development of this argument, some commentators go on to lambast the government for abolishing the Research & Development grant scheme. The theory is that this reinforces the perception overseas that Australia is stuck in the past as an "old" economy.

Well, most of these arguments are utter rubbish. For a start, as far as most of the rest of the world is concerned, if they ever think about Australia at all, it is in terms of kangaroos and koalas or worse, they confuse it with Austria. The truth is that, relative to the economies of Japan, the USA or the major economies of Europe, Australia just doesn't get above the noise level. So in the current climate when everything American is seen as the place to invest, Australia is ignored and our dollar languishes.

And isn't that great? It represents the greatest opportunity that Australia has had for many years to grow its economy really strongly. Because our dollar is low, it makes our exports much cheaper and many companies are making great profits because of it.

At the same time, imports to Australia are dearer and that discourages companies and individual consumers from buying as much overseas-sourced products as they would have. And each month that translates into a current account surplus rather than the current account deficit we have been running almost forever. In the long term, that means that less of Australia's gross national product (GNP) goes to servicing our overseas debt. All of which is good for our economy, in the long term. Remember that Japan grew enormously in those decades while its currency was deliberately undervalued.

To my way of thinking, the longer Australia has an undervalued currency, the better.

And what about the "old" economy versus the "new" economy? Anyone who has been following the sharemarket since April will know that most of the "new economy" companies, mainly based in the USA, are not looking too brilliant. And the picture in Asia, where they are strong in IT manufacturing, is not so rosy either; so much for the benefits of having a strong IT manufacturing base.

Australia has the best of both worlds. IT equipment is generally cheap and Australian companies have invested heavily in it. We're right up there with the best in the world in that aspect, regardless of what the commentators might say (most of them have never worked in real companies anyway). And we can use our broad-based knowledge of IT systems to enhance our ability to export goods and services to the rest of the world.

So when you hear yet another news bulletin about the parlous state of the Australian currency remember that it is good news disguised - it will do us good in the long run.

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